Public Health is a Security Issue

Often climate change is framed in terms of its impact on temperatures, sea levels, and ice caps; its impact on public health is often overlooked. A degradation of public health is a clear security risk. Yesterday, Paul Epstein, the Associate Director at the Center for Health and the Global Environment with Harvard’s Medical School and Amanda Staudt, a climate scientist with the National Wildlife Federation spoke at the Wilson Center on the potentially dramatic public health effects of climate change.

Climate change will increase the reach of disease. For example, the melting glaciers on Mount Kilimanjaro will expose a greater population to malaria-causing mosquitoes. Without previous exposure, they are extremely vulnerable to the disease. Droughts lead to unsanitary water storage which spreads dysentery and dengue fever. Hurricanes flood low-lying areas and destroy infrastructure, which can leave refugees living in unsanitary conditions.

Climate change exposes the delicate interconnections between health and the surrounding climate. By exposing this complex relationship, Epstein explained how factors that threaten state stability, refugees, migrations, and resource scarcity, have roots often times in a public health crisis.

One key area for cooperation between developed and developing nations is on adaptation to increased disease risks caused by climate change. Climate change will increase the risk of diseases like malaria, but economic development, and public health investments can counteract these risks. Climate adaptation funding can help in these areas. At the end of his talk, Epstein said that successful adaptation to climate change will require economic development.

Water Scarcity in South Asia

This weekend's USA Today had an article about how climate change could affect the monsoon season in South Asia. It is based on a study, using predictive computer models, about the strength and timing of how the monsoon season will change on the Indian Subcontinent.

Tree important results to note from this article: (1) the monsoon season is likely to arrive later; (2) the effects of the monsoon are expected to move further east, towards Bangladesh and Burma; and (3) the rains fo the monsoon season are likely to be less intense.

The effects of the monsoon season on India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Burma, and Nepal should not be underestimated. Often called an 'economic lifeline' for India, the strength of the monsoon is crucial to India's agriculture, which supports about 60 percent of the nation's 1.1 billion population. The monsoon season, which lasts from approximately June through September, can provide 80% of India's annual rainfall. In years when it is stronger or earlier than usual, widespread flooding can occur, but when it is late or light, it can cause widespread crop failure.

The strength of the monsoon also has a strong effect on Himalayan glaciers, particularly in the southeastern Himalayas, around Everest and Nepal. I attended an event last week at the Stimson Center that showed strong evidence that these glaciers are already under pressure from climate change. With reduced rainfall from the monsoon, they will be under even greater pressure.

Because of the geopolitical and economic significance of South Asia, it will be important for more thorough studies to be done on the effects of climate change in this region.

The Australian Fires

Some have called the horrific South-East Australian fires a symptom of climate change.

Bradford Plummer at on The New Republic's "The Vine" blog talks about the importance of these fires, and how seemingly small changes in long-run temperature can manifest themselves in huge and terrible ways, like this.

We will always have to add the disclaimer that no single, local event can ever be definitively attributed to global climate change. There have always been brush fires in Australia. However, two things have combined to make these fires worse. First, suburban sprawl has encroached into historically fire-prone areas (this is similar to Southern California's fires). Secondly, however, these fires come after a drought that has lasted somewhere close to a decade. In that way, it was clearly attributable to local changes in the climate. The end result is that it doesn't matter to people who've lost their homes whether the fire was caused by carbon emissions, drought, or arson. They have lost their homes, and in the future will only want to make sure that this cannot happen again.

That's why adaptation -- not just in terms of spending, but in terms of our mindset -- to a warmer climate will be so important in the future. Perhaps as we adapt, we'll realize that living in the path of fires is not the best place to be.