Pacifc Islands Growing - But can that really continue?

Foreign Policy's Passport blog has a quick post, "Pacific islands are actually growing" linking to a new study from the University of Aukland saying that 80% of Pacific Islands have grown or stayed the same size of the last 60 years.  The article in question, titled "The dynamic response of reef islands to sea level rise: evidence from multi-decadal analysis of island change in the central pacific" was published a couple of weeks ago in "Global and Planetary Change".

According to the authors, Pacific Islands respond to rising sea levels (an average of 2 mm per year over these 60 years) by rising along with the sea.  They do this by growing their coral reefs and capturing sediment.  Tuvalu, a country widely expected to be the first to fall beneath the waves, has expanded in size over these 60 years, according to the study. 

If only this meant that we don't have to worry about entire nations slipping beneathe the waves anymore! Unfortunately, there is evidence that we should not be complacent about this.  Of the accelerating amount of carbon emissions being pumped into the atmostphere, about 50% of it is being captured by the oceans.  A chemical reaction of the increased carbon with elements in the seawater is causing the oceans to become more acidic, and that acidity is killing coral reefs.  So, we should not be so sanguine as to expect that what has worked to preserve these islands over the past 60 years of slow sea level rise will also work in the forthcoming 60 years.  We should also be aware that there is an increasing threat that sea level rise will be much faster than the 2 mm per year.

Last year, I blogged about the UN resolution, proposed by 12 Pacific island states, about the national security effects of climate change. The Maldives and Tuvalu have been at the center of international political action against climate change, and they have done good work.  I worry that this study will be used by those opposed to climate action as a way to sideline them from the debate.  I think they still have some persuasive arguments to make that they remain at risk.  We shouldn't stop sending the filmmakers, campaigners, and politicians to the Maldives or Tuvalu yet.

Greenland Melting Faster

A new study (subscription required) in Science shows that the ice sheets of Greenland are melting at a fast and accelerating rate. This is yet another example of how the latest science is showing that the effects of climate change are moving faster than even the worst-case scenarios of the IPCC's 2007 consensus report.

The report, based on satellite observations, states that the Greenland ice sheet lost approximately 1500 gigatons of ice mass from 2000-2008. This is about 0.46 millimeters per year of global sea level rise. And, the rate of loss is increasing. Since 2006, high summer melt rates have increased Greenland ice sheet mass loss to 273 gigatons per year (0.75 millimeters per year of equivalent sea level rise).

Importantly, this article appears to resolve much of the uncertainty about how much the ice sheet is melting. The article used two independent methods, one based on observations and the other on remote gravity measurements made by satellites. By getting these two approaches to agree, we can get a clearer, more precise view of what is actually happening. I have said before that policymakers are asking for better science. Unfortunately, its not pretty.

Whether we can keep the Greenland ice sheet intact will be an important factor in keeping Bangladesh, the Maldives, or New York above rising sea levels. The water contained in these ice sheets could account for 7 meters of sea level rise.

A Little Humor

It always helps to be able to laugh about things like rising sea levels flooding New York:

The Colbert Report	Mon - Thurs 11:30pm / 10:30c
Formidable Opponent - Global Warming With Al Gore
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When did Al Gore get funny?

Refugees Risk Sovereignty

At the Pacific Island Forum, Australia's Prime Minister Kevin Rudd was asked if Australia would be prepared to accept climate refugees from neighboring island nation states if climate change raises sea levels to render low lying islands inhospitable. His answer was telling:

‘Let’s be blunt about the order of priorities here. One is a set of actions agreed to by the international community which minimise the impact of coastal inundation as we minimise the impact of climate change but taking the mitigation measures that are outlined in the possible contents of a new framework agreement and the various national actions to be undertaken here in Australia.’'

Rudd sidestepped the question. Refugees represent a threat to a nation's sovereignty because they undermine the control states have over their borders. Territorial integrity is one of the hallmarks of a sovereign nation. For Australia, controlling its borders are easier. It's an island; refugees from neighboring states such as Kiribati would have to arrive by boat with plenty of warning. However, in the Middle East, refugees created by environmental devastation could create security problems. The recently released Arab Development Report 2009 states:

Spreading drought, reduced water levels in rivers, stunted agricultural production and incursion by sea water will force large numbers of people to emigrate, turning millions of people, particularly in the Nile River Delta and coastal areas in the Arab Gulf, into “environmental refugees.” These developments could affect not only human security among communities, but national and regional security as well. Such severe changes may also affect political stability and increase domestic tension.

Already, Syria and Iraq face devastating water shortages. The region contains refugee camps in Palestine, disputed political sovereignty by the Kurds, and a war in Iraq. Refugees fleeing from drought ridden farm land would heighten these border disputes in an area beset with border integrity issues.