Stimson Center Video on the Mekong

Via the New Security Beat, I cam across this excellent video from the Stimson Center about the implications of building new dams across the Mekong River.

Mekong Tipping Point from Henry L. Stimson Center on Vimeo.

Richard Cronin, who has a starring role in the video, is the author of a new article in Survival: Mekong Dams and the Perils of Peace (sub. required). While the video focuses more on the implications of the dams for fisheries, the aticle focuses on the debates between the nations that share the Mekong. There is an important climate component to this as well. Although the river is not dependent upon glacial melt for the majority of its flow (6% according to the WWF), during the dry season, this glacial runoff is important.

Uganda - The Forefront of Climate Change

Yesterday, the AFP vividly describes how climate change is dramatically changing Uganda’s climate and ecosystems. Key passage:

‘Goretti Kitutu, a climate change specialist at NEMA, said people might soon be competing for water as well.
The snow cap provides a steady trickle of water to the neighbouring communities and feeds the Nile river basin, which includes Lake George and Lake Albert.
"Once this ice disappears we shall have serious problems in the hydrology of the area. We will see reduced water in the lakes and that will impact the Nile basin," Kitutu explained.
"There are plenty of countries that depend on that water," she said. "You could easily have communities that will be fighting over water," she added.’

The article goes on to describe in personal terms how climate change concretely has impacted food production, water scarcity, flood risks and even disease control. Developing countries like Uganda are at the front lines of climate change and this just increases the pressure on major emitters, like China, the US and the EU, to agree to a binding international framework on climate change.

Ethanol Importation from Brazil

Two weeks ago, President Lula of Brazil visited the White House. What was most news-worthy from the climate-security perspective is their discussion of trading Brazilian sugar-based ethanol. It is no surprise that Lula favors an opening of the U.S. ethanol market to imports; Brazil has an established and productive ethanol industry. President Obama -- who supported ethanol during the campaign (particularly in Iowa) -- said:

"I know that the issue of Brazilian ethanol coming into the United States
has been a source of tension between the two countries. It's not going to
change overnight, but I do think that as we continue to build exchanges of
ideas, commerce, trade around the issue of biodiesel, that over time this source
of tension can get resolved."

Although this is a classic politician's dodge, he does seem to understand that our current policies are not economically, scientifically, or environmentally sustainable. Perhaps Obama can make some changes to undo the twisted problems that political interference has brought to this market.

Ethanol is one of the most fraught problems in the nexus of climate and energy security. Several years ago, when it was first starting to get ramped-up in the U.S., it was seen as one of the easiest win-wins around. Not only did you get to support 'family farmers' you also got to fight global warming and reduce the importation of foreign oil. Unfortunately, it hasn't turned out to be that simple. It turns out, that when you take land-use into account, corn-based ethanol may not actually be good for the climate. While it has been marginally beneficial in reducing dependence on foreign oil, it probably had the unforeseen problem of raising food prices.

Piracy and climate change

Bill Rammell, a junior minister in Great Britain’s Foreign and Commonwealth Office, recently suggested that maritime piracy could increase ten-fold around the world as a result of climate change.

The links between piracy and climate change are by no means direct or obvious, but they are nevertheless a source of concern. Climate change can act as a ‘threat multiplier’ by severely eroding natural resources (such as fish, farmland and freshwater) that many coastal communities rely on for livelihoods.

Erosion of natural resources is especially worrisome when combined with weak, corrupt or non-existent local government and law enforcement. The piracy problem in Somalia, although not directly linked to climate change, provides an extreme example of how fishermen can turn to piracy in a country that has not had an effective government for almost two decades.

The United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization estimates that about 80 percent of the world’s fish stocks are either depleted or fished at their limits. Population growth and climate change are likely to exacerbate the pressures in the coming decades.

‘Teach a man to fish and you have fed him for a lifetime’ is a well-known adage in the foreign aid field. However, when the fields are flooded and the fish stocks are depleted, there is a real danger that poverty-stricken fishermen may turn to less savoury forms of employment.

Bangladesh

Bangladesh is usually one of the first countries named when you’re talking about vulnerability to global warming. Because of its position in the delta created by two of the largest rivers in Asia, the Ganges and the Brahmaputra, Bangladesh is uniquely vulnerable to flooding – caused by either upstream flow or sea level rise – and coastal storms.

There seems to be a growing recognition in the media of Bangladesh as the ‘test case’ along with low-lying islands of the effects of global warming. As a poor, populous country with a tenuously-held democratic government, how the people of Bangladesh reacts to climate change will give us important lessons in how the world can begin to address this issue.

The Daily Star of Dhaka says "Climate change to have impact on food security"
E&E Daily is running a series on "Bangladesh: where the Climate Exodus Begins"

China Increasing Spending on Agriculture

The Guardian has an article saying that the Chinese government is expanding spending on agriculture in its annual budget by 121 billion yuan (about $17.8 billion). This marks a 20% increase this year. However, what is interesting about this spending increase is not the numbers, but the justification: short-term alleviation of the financial crisis, but long-term expansion of resilience to climate change.

With China, though, its often important to hear what is said about the government from the inside, as well as the outside. While the Guardian's article focuses on climate change as the main reason for the 20% spending increase, Xinhua, the official press agency of the Chinese Government, barely mentions climate change in its article. Instead, the focus is on expanding agricultural subsidies, increasing the price of grain, and investment in rural infrastructure. Clearly much of this is short-term oriented spending that has little to do with climate change.

So, in this case, it would appear that the Chinese government is spending money on their priorities, but claiming (at least internationally) that they are doing it in the name of climate change. As Orwell said, though, "Language can corrupt thought." While the Chinese government may be disingenuous about using this money specifically to deal with climate change, if they continue to talk about investing in climate change-related issues, they may eventually start to take the threat of climate change seriously.

Note: The graphics come from the Chinese Government. Aren't they great?

Korea's Food in Africa

ForeignPolicy.com's Passport blog has a good explanation of how South Korea's Daewoo company has gotten itself wrapped up in an ongoing power struggle in Madagascar. In short, Daewoo leased a huge amount of land (said to be about the size of Qatar) for nothing: the only benefit for Madagascar would be the employment that it would provide.

Many people involved in climate change have been pointing to this and other similar deals whereby richer, mostly East Asian or Middle Eastern, countries set up bilateral deals, in the name of food security. A big fear is that, in a warmer world, patterns of agricultural growth will necessarily change, causing countries to scramble in order to feed their population.

On first glance it is understandable for countries to seek long-term stability for their necessary food imports. However, each deal like this only serves to further segment the world into competing blocks. Moreover, if countries prevent their farmers from seeking the high prices in the global marketplace, they will only reduce the long-term incentives to farm in their country.

A better option for Madagascar in a warmer world is to upgrade agricultural productivity so that it can sell its food on the open market to the highest bidder. Maintaining a free and open market for vital commodities like food will be critical to global adaptation to climate change. While it will always be tempting for wealthier countries like South Korea to monopolize a source, they should resist the temptation. Such a one-sided, neo-mercantalist policy will only serve to antagonize the locals, who must become stakeholders in such a system. However, it is a shame that Madagascar -- a desperately poor and underdeveloped nation (ranked 143 by the UNDP) -- will be deprived of desperately needed foreign investment for upgrading its agricultural sector.