The Effects of Climate Change: We Still Need Better Information

By necessity, climate change policy is driven by science. Only by using scientistific observation, theory, and projection can we adequately understand how increased greenhouse gases are increasing temperatures and changing the climate. There are literally thousands of climate scientists involved in producing the IPCC's reports.

Unfortunately, as this article makes clear, social science on climate change, particularly on economic and political issues, is not as clear or as developed as the climate and meteorological science. Partly this is because humans are by nature much more difficult to predict than the interaction of molecules in the atmosphere.

As the article asks, how can we know what events will trigger climate change induced migration?

"One study says 100 million people will be displaced by global warming. Another
puts it at 250 million. Meanwhile, a sweeping report from Christian Aid warns
that 1 billion people, an almost unthinkable crush of humanity, could be forced
from their homes by midcentury because of climate change and the increase in
natural disasters, which will exacerbate regional conflicts."

There are different assumptions about human behavior in each study, and global numbers of this magnitude are almost impossible to acurately predict. Instead of presenting such large-scale, global studies, perhaps it would be better for social scientists doing research on the effects of climate change to focus on defined regional or local trends?

Lobbying for climate change legislation

More than 12,000 young people, mostly high school and college students, from around the US traveled to Washington D.C., last Friday Feb. 27 to take part in a four-day-long convention involving a youth-led conference known as Powershift. Paul Wapner, director of the Global Environmental Politics Program at American University, agreed that the weekend will likely be the largest activism event on climate change in U.S. history. The annual event began in 2007 and serves to lobby legislators for climate-friendly bills and immediate environmental action. The gatherings are intended to capture President Barack Obama's attention and demand that Congress pass a climate change bill this year. Jessy Tolkan, president of the Energy Action Coalition, a network of youth activists who organized Powershift stated "we absolutely expect and demand that climate legislation gets passed in 2009." According to the conference's Web site Power Shift's goal is to "hold our elected officials accountable for rebuilding our economy and reclaiming our future through bold climate and clean energy policy."
The conference includes a focus on environmental justice, the belief that human rights include the right to a clean environment and access to critical natural resources. Climate change endangered indigenous communities from Alaska exemplify the many groups that traveled long distances to have their voices heard in the nation’s capitol. This is only one example of the many grass-roots initiatives worldwide seeking to mobilize governments and the public to deal with climate change. According to the new report from the WorldWatch Institute, called the State of the World 2009, “local struggles for climate change justice connect at the international level with a shared understanding that in addition to accelerating environmental degradation and species loss, global climate change will jeopardize human rights and exacerbate socioeconomic inequities.”

Water Scarcity in South Asia

This weekend's USA Today had an article about how climate change could affect the monsoon season in South Asia. It is based on a study, using predictive computer models, about the strength and timing of how the monsoon season will change on the Indian Subcontinent.

Tree important results to note from this article: (1) the monsoon season is likely to arrive later; (2) the effects of the monsoon are expected to move further east, towards Bangladesh and Burma; and (3) the rains fo the monsoon season are likely to be less intense.

The effects of the monsoon season on India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Burma, and Nepal should not be underestimated. Often called an 'economic lifeline' for India, the strength of the monsoon is crucial to India's agriculture, which supports about 60 percent of the nation's 1.1 billion population. The monsoon season, which lasts from approximately June through September, can provide 80% of India's annual rainfall. In years when it is stronger or earlier than usual, widespread flooding can occur, but when it is late or light, it can cause widespread crop failure.

The strength of the monsoon also has a strong effect on Himalayan glaciers, particularly in the southeastern Himalayas, around Everest and Nepal. I attended an event last week at the Stimson Center that showed strong evidence that these glaciers are already under pressure from climate change. With reduced rainfall from the monsoon, they will be under even greater pressure.

Because of the geopolitical and economic significance of South Asia, it will be important for more thorough studies to be done on the effects of climate change in this region.