The
Flash Point Blog has a recent post asking:
Is conflict declining, even as global warming occurs? This is yet another example of oversimplifying the question. They cite
James Carafano (a scholar from the Heritage Institute) as saying that conflict is going down while climate change is occuring.
I think Carafano
and the American Security Project are is looking at this is in a way that is just too simple. No political scientist would ever claim that there is a direct 1-to-1 causational relationship with something that is as complicated as the causes of conflict. Clearly there are many things that lead to conflict, like economic dislocation, religious differences, class conflicts, or others. In science terms, there is more than one independent variable in this equation. However, climate change and environmental security is part of the equation. In fact, it is rightly called a ‘multiplier’ that can exacerbate all the other parts of the equation.
So, to say that climate change won’t cause conflict isn’t true, just like like saying that climate change will cause conflicts is also too simplistic. I’ve written about this
before.
Also, its interesting to note that Carafano apparantly is conceeding that climate change is happening, by saying that ‘things have been getting better’ even as climate change happens.
dude the climate is always changing
ReplyDeleteJames Jay Carafano
I think you've mischaracterized just what Dr. Bernard Finel was getting at in his blog. In fact, Dr. Finel actually argued that data on climate change and conflict is extremely hard to nail down and it can be manipulated to reinforce almost any position. He actually makes the threat 'multiplier' arguement that you cite above.
ReplyDeleteDr. Finel wrote: "The point isn’t that climate change causes conflict anyway. The point is that climate change is likely to exacerbate existing conflicts. The end of the Cold War was clearly a more significant influence on trends in conflict than climate change has been thus far."
I hope you'll go back and take a closer look at Dr. Bernard Finel's blog, http://www.americansecurityproject.org/theflashpointblog/bernard-finel/2009/11/06/is-conflict-declining-even-as-global-warming-occurs/.
OK guys both these statements one from ann marie and one from andrew are direct one to one causal relationsships...which I quoute andrew "no poltical scientist would say that..but you both just did say that...amd you are both right....you cant make one to one causal relationships and you are both wrong because you did it anyway....this passes for cogent analysis?
ReplyDeleteDr. Finel wrote: "The point isn’t that climate change causes conflict anyway. The point is that climate change is likely to exacerbate existing conflicts.
However, climate change and environmental security is part of the equation. In fact, it is rightly called a ‘multiplier’ that can exacerbate all the other parts of the equation.
FYI does anybody actually read what I wrote?
ReplyDeletehttp://www.heritage.org/Research/EnergyandEnvironment/tst102709a.cfm
James Jay Carafano