I wanted to quickly link to a blog post written by Dan Smith, Secretary General of International Alert. He writes on the new Reuters climate change 'AlertNet' page. This post talks about the complexities of determining how and whether climate change can or has caused climate changes.
Also, below is an interview Smith gave with Al Jazeera's English language network. He talks about how interconnected development, conflict, and climate change really are. It is this complex web that makes it so difficult to predict conflicts from climate change.